So, I wonder if Watford (Opposition) could topple Liverpool (NRM) and cause an epic upset in modern African history. Could Watford overcome that improbability?

For thirty-five years, the State House has housed the same individual. There are many reasons for this. Contradistinctively, Liverpool had not won the league in thirty years – until their momentous run in the 2020/21 season.

This country’s pre-1986 history is bloody. Museveni – not entirely saintly in his role in Ugandan politics prior to the 1980 elections – was a gallant knight in shinning amour. His ten-point program was, to Uganda, what sweet-nothings are to new lovers. In spite of a few bad seeds, NRA was generally aggregable in contrast to UNLA.

NRA overpowered Obote with the good will of the people and a dash of luck that was the crashing of Oyite Ojok’s helicopter. Later, the eviction of Lutwa from State House was easier than learning the first three letters of the alphabet. The fella was uneducated and highly unqualified. Ring any bells?

Museveni’s commission to democracy was evidenced by initiating the national constitutional education and consultations. Although this process had its difficulties, as Odoki noted, it was successful and void of manipulation.

They that tasted anarchy find peace to be priceless. Uganda, although composed mostly of the youth, has a substantial number of elders. This lot treasures Ssevo despite his flaws. It influences national politics in more ways than we care to admit. Getting back to the question; is an upset possible? As I run the unlikely risk of swallowing my words, I’d say an upset is impossible! Let’s review the status quo.

On Friday, the Commander in Chief (CIC) oversaw the graduation of over 4,800 police trainees. These shall soon join the other thousands who are roaming the country. They will become part of an institution that persecutes those who express free thought. The fact that the police conducts partisan operations every now and then is undisputable.

Essentially, the growing police is a huddle for the opposition. Whereas it should not be the case, the POMA has ensured that the police have a right of oppression. Under the Act, one has to notify them of any public gathering they intends to hold. The complexity arises from the police’s right to reject a venue as unfavourable. The chances of an outspoken opposition politician having cooperation from the police on that matter are few.

On the other hand, the ruling party candidates conduct campaigns with nary a query. Besides that, the national development is an incentive to choose Museveni. The government policies prior to 1986 were counterproductive. The economy suffered a huge blow under Amin and did not recover under Obote. Essential commodities were hard to come by and hence expensive.

In contrast, the economic environment is fair enough for a large portion of the population to afford such commodities. The political environment is such that a life of luxury is possible for those who can afford it. All this; despite the inflation today.

The infrastructural development under Ssevo is monumental when one considers our history. Over 5000km of Ugandan roads today are paved. Privatisation has facilitated a rise of skyscrapers over the country. The rate of production and export has also increased. All these developments, albeit slow, make Ssevo a handsome candidate.

Such developments carry a very big load over our will to fight for change. We cannot do whatever it takes for fear of receding. Any financially independent citizen would embrace a monarchy if it offers high per capita. The spirit that was manifested between 1980 and 1986 has been stifled by this bubble of comfort. It may be good governance! Truly, any smart dictator knows that a comfortable populace guarantees entrenchment. Talk of pros and cons! One can use development as a tactic and still be a hero.

The opposition also deals with characters like Mwenda. A hulking structural integrity can only be weakened from within. The ‘old man of the clan’ knows that all too well. He would have us believe that he joined NUP to provide good leadership. Au contraire, there are only two sides to that coin; either he is a virus launched by the enemy or he has a personal vendetta. Neither side of the coin is good for NUP. He is there to weaken their structural integrity. Simply, he is to NUP what Phil Jones was to Manchester United; a player for the other team!

Those factors, although valid, don’t compare to those that we’ve grown accustomed to. The political persecutions, oppression, electoral violence, manipulation, intimidation and alleged rigging drive the final nail into the coffin. These variables have been consistent and evident.

The Supreme Court recognised the existence of these electoral issues. Although it rendered them unsubstantial, its declarations were followed by a recommendation of reforms to the Attorney General’s office; to remedy the same. Nevertheless, the government has not implemented any of the reforms. They simply carry on with the same old rituals.

Various electoral observers have reported similarly. The same factors tip the electoral result in favour of the incumbent in every election. Whether or not the incumbent signs off on these events is questionable. When one trains a dog, it needs no command to attack an intruder! Such behaviour becomes instinctive!

Nonetheless, considering Uganda’s gruesome history, the change is overbearing. Therefore, claims of there being no big difference between then and now are invalid. Many of these claims arise from a generation that is ill informed about the past. The youthful fanbase have forgotten the history; perhaps because it was told to them as opposed to inhaling the ashes and dust of war. Anyone that likens today to the pre-1986 Uganda is an insolent fool!

Also, there are many people in the country whose positions aren’t aired over the media. The call for change seems overwhelming! The people that make it use the media more than those that are content. However, the latter are more than the former. Although Uganda has a young population, it cannot be regarded as anti-NRM in its entirety. There are many youths that are happy with the status quo.

Watford has a lot of barriers to overcome even without Uganda’s electoral rituals. Liverpool has been dominant in the league and is therefore more likely to win it. Yet, Watford is left no room to breathe as numerous unjust circumstances await it. I therefore have no hope for an upset!

Let’s end our denial! The possibility for change doesn’t lie in catchy slogans that stir up the public. It is not to be found in our frustration. Truly, change lies in our patience. We should patiently build a just and equitable structure to defeat the intolerant and oppressive structure that stands today. Patience, in this case, wins this war!

Although this move was considered a prank by serious observers, it also   demonstrates that perhaps the motor-mouthed veteran journalist misses opposition politics which in the first place made him the biggest brand in the country.

Mwenda has been a bitter critic of the People Power Movement (a pressure group that metamorphosed into the National Unity Party) and considers them intolerant, uncouth, primitive and probably worse than Museveni. He actually once said that Bobi Wine would be the worst version of Museveni!

He considers them a terrorist group that has hallmarks of radical group similar to that of the Libyan rebel forces known as the Misratta Brigade that participated in the overthrow and eventual death of Libyan despot Col. Muamar Gadhafi. So for Andrew Mwenda to visit the offices of ‘the Misratta Brigade’ was indeed historic.

He later posted a very friendly post in which he said that he found them (NUP) more tolerant, and accommodative than he had expected. He also promised to contest against Bobi Wine with the hope of defeating him at the party’s delegate’s conference. Looking at him speak was like watching Mr. Bean, the legendary comedian.

Yesterday’s Mwenda

All indications are that Mwenda misses the aura and the believability he used to enjoy when he was still associated with fighting for social justice. Although he was a mere journalist, Mwenda made his name by opposing most of the injustices occasioned by President Museveni’s regime.

While journalism presupposes objectivity, fairness and giving all sides the chance to give their opinions about a given issue, Mwenda had deliberately made it clear that he had an inclination for giving more traction and space to the opposition. He had become the voice of the opposition in the media. He made his name by not only criticizing but also by literally abusing the person of President Museveni.

Case in point; when Col. John Garang perished in a helicopter crash, Mwenda accused President Museveni for causing the death of the SPLA leader. He went on to call Museveni a villager who had failed to govern the country. He was incarcerated for a few days before he went back to his radio program on K-FM plus writing in the Daily Monitor.

Later on Mwenda quit the newspaper basing on the reason that it was no longer an objective vehicle for fighting social injustice in the country because the owner, the Agha Khan, was allegedly in bed with President Museveni.

He promptly started his own media house, The Independent Magazine in which he continued his attacks against the NRM regime, drawing attention to the nepotism that was being practiced by Museveni by mentioning all his relatives working for the government.

Off to Kigali

For reasons not known immediately, Mwenda started doing public relations for the Rwanda government. His job in Kigali was to do propaganda that would project rosy growth figures and ‘wonderful’ economic growth statistics which made Rwanda ‘the shining star’ in the region.

The project initially worked because everyone started believing in Rwanda and quoting it as the benchmark for better governance, sound polices etcetera. Mwenda also resurrected the Kisangani battles that had been fought in 1999-2003 between the UPDF and RDF by focusing more on the battles where UPDF was beaten badly by RDF.

He had totally sacrificed his mother country for the few pieces of silver from Kigali. Soon, the cold war erupted between the two countries and got to a breaking point. Trust vintage Mwenda, for he was the man who brokered the deal to reconcile Presidents Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni.

We have been reliably informed that Mwenda made dollars and pounds from that deal to reconcile the two leaders. But the contradiction of all is that both leaders have failed to fully reconcile. To-date- Rwanda has still not opened its borders with Uganda.

It’s believed that although the leaders of both countries loathed each other so much, they were also not ready to get to full-scale war against each other. Mwenda has however, always insisted that he cannot rule out that one day these countries will fight each other – notwithstanding the cover up diplomacy.

Ties with Kampala

Interestingly, while Mwenda was working for Kigali, the reality was that he had very close ties with almost the entire power brokers in Kampala. For instance he has very strong relations with the First Son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and enjoys a comradely bond with Museveni’s brother, Gen Salim Saleh. He is also in an enviable position of being in talking terms with almost all the top UPDF Generals both in government and those who quit and are in opposition politics in the country.

A few years ago, it was rumored that Mwenda had been sacked by the Kigali establishment. But he immediately found a vacancy at State House Nakasero where, he is known to be one of the top informal advisors for President Museveni, a feat that makes him the only journalist who has worked for two states that are hostile to each other.

Association with Mafias

But working closely with the Ugandan State has come at a cost. Today Mwenda is associated with the mafia group that runs errands around the Ugandan President in State House. Although he holds no official position in government, he wields a lot of influence in the corridors of power. He can influence the deployment, appointment and sacking of public officials, influence policy and can influence or tilt decisions made by the President. All these machinations and contacts have made Mwenda one of the richest journalists in Uganda.

The Paranoia of losing it all

But Mwenda seems to suffer from the same disease that affects most Ugandans who have amassed a lot of wealth during Museveni’s 34 year reign – the paranoia of losing it all. Although they made the wealth through Museveni, they also find Museveni’s continued stay in power a big risk to their wealth.

Although Museveni has guaranteed peace and stability for the last three decades, his continued stay is becoming more of a liability than an asset for the wealthy class. The trends in world politics have demonstrated that regimes in third world countries cannot guarantee stability without sanitizing the politics.

In Uganda the agitation for regime change has grown to a level where it cannot be ignored because Museveni has failed to guarantee peaceful transfer of power amidst agitation for him to handover to another leader.

There are fears that the forces of change might violently sweep Museveni off power and endanger the stability of the country like it was with Sudan President Omar Bashir, Egyptian ruler Hosni Mubarak, in Libya with Col. Muamar Gadhafi and many others who had failed to create peaceful transition of power. In such situations the masses have risen up and dethroned their intransigent leaders.

President Museveni’s failure to undertake a peaceful transfer of power has put him in the spotlight as one of the leaders to face the same fate like the aforementioned leaders. Interestingly, Mwenda chose to work with Kampala at a time when Museveni had lost the moral authority and respect after amending the constitution two times (lifting the term and age limits).

That has come with money and power, but attracted negative fame for him (M9). He is no longer believable and lacks the moral authority to direct debate like he used to do in the past when he was inclined to the fight against social injustice. That has put him in a catch twenty two situation. He is enjoying money and fraternizing with powerful members of the regime but lacks the believability of the society.

In fact, today Mwenda is considered a serious member of the mafia group that is fleecing State resources. His last mention in the media was when he was involved in withdrawing billions of shillings from bank of Uganda. The Mwenda who was a mere journalist is now in a position where he cannot influence debate, cannot be trusted as a journalist and cannot join the forces of change.

And hence;

It’s a pity that Mwenda has reached a point where he can only make pranks about national issues. His comical visit at the NUP offices have not only demonstrated that he is indeed a lost brand but have also proved that he no longer takes himself seriously. Instead of making an objective analysis about the fate of NUP, he chose to go and make a mockery of himself!

It’s about time we ran a story narrating the rise and fall of the once great Andrew Mwenda, the man who used to talk and move the airwaves and leave Ugandans in awe about his intellect. Today he is widely regarded as one of the biggest sycophants for the regime he used to criticize so much. It’s totally uncertain whether Mwenda will ever rise again. What a waste of brain power!