The latest Security Council straw poll has dealt a serious blow to Uganda’s campaign to have former UN under-secretary-general Olara Otunnu succeed António Guterres as Secretary-General, with three of the five veto-wielding permanent members reportedly registering opposition to his candidacy.
Otunnu received only four “encourage” votes against 10 “discourage” votes and one “no opinion” in the sixth informal ballot held on October 16, according to results obtained by PassBlue and reported by Ugandan media. Crucially, the first colour-coded ballot distinguished the votes of the five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — from those of the 10 elected members.
The results leave Otunnu needing a major diplomatic turnaround if his campaign is to remain viable, because a candidate must secure at least nine votes in the 15-member Security Council and, critically, cannot face a “discourage” vote from any of the five permanent members, which possess veto power.
Three powers against Otunnu
The most damaging aspect of the latest ballot is not simply Otunnu’s low overall score but the revelation that three permanent members are opposed to him.
According to the reported colour-coded results, only one P5 member encouraged Otunnu, while three discouraged him and the fifth registered no opinion. The identities of the individual permanent members behind the votes have not been publicly disclosed.
That distinction is critical. A candidate can theoretically recover from a poor overall tally by persuading elected Council members to switch their votes. But opposition from even one permanent member can block a candidate from receiving the Council’s recommendation.
For Otunnu, therefore, the latest figures point to a problem that goes beyond numbers. His campaign must overcome resistance within the most powerful group in the Council at a time when the selection process is entering its decisive phase.
The October 16 ballot was the first time colour-coded voting was introduced in the current selection process, allowing candidates and their supporters to see whether negative votes were coming from the P5 or the elected members. Previously, the results showed only the overall number of “encourage”, “discourage” and “no opinion” votes.
A sharp reversal for Uganda’s candidate
Otunnu’s latest performance represents a sharp reversal from the progress he appeared to make earlier in the contest.
He began the race at the bottom of the first straw poll on July 30, receiving two “encourage” votes, five “discourage” votes and eight “no opinion” votes.
His fortunes improved considerably in the second poll on August 21, when his “encourage” votes rose to five, with five “discourage” and five “no opinion” votes. That result was interpreted as one of the strongest improvements among the candidates.
In the September 18 poll, Otunnu retained five “encourage” votes but his discouragements increased to seven, while three members registered no opinion.
By September 29, he again had five “encourage” votes, but by the fifth poll on October 7 his support had fallen to three, against 12 “discourage” votes and no “no opinion” votes.
The latest ballot therefore provides a mixed picture. His support has recovered marginally from three to four, while his discouragements have dropped from 12 to 10. But the emergence of three P5 opponents makes that modest improvement largely insignificant.
Grynspan still leads
The wider race remains unsettled, with Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan continuing to lead the field.
Grynspan secured nine “encourage” votes, five “discourage” votes and one “no opinion” in Friday’s ballot. Three permanent members encouraged her, while two discouraged her. PassBlue
Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi each received eight “encourage” votes.
Rodrigues Birkett received three encouraging votes from permanent members and two discouraging votes from the P5. Grossi also received two P5 discouragements but only two P5 endorsements, leaving both candidates short of the nine-vote threshold.
The figures demonstrate why the race remains open despite Grynspan’s lead. She is the only candidate to have reached nine overall “encourage” votes, but two permanent members still oppose her.
As Reuters reported, none of the candidates has yet secured the support of all five veto-wielding powers, meaning the race remains vulnerable to further negotiations, withdrawals and the emergence of new candidates.
Latin America advantage
Another obstacle facing Otunnu is the growing argument that the next UN Secretary-General should come from Latin America and the Caribbean.
The informal regional rotation principle has traditionally influenced the selection process, and the current contest has increasingly become dominated by candidates from the Latin American and Caribbean group.
Grynspan is Costa Rican, Rodrigues Birkett is Guyanese and Grossi is Argentine. Panama has publicly argued that the geographical rotation principle points towards a candidate from the Latin America and Caribbean region.
That creates an additional political hurdle for Otunnu, who is seeking to become the first Ugandan and one of the few Africans to occupy the UN’s highest diplomatic office.
The race also carries a strong gender dimension. The UN has never had a woman Secretary-General, and Grynspan, Rodrigues Birkett and other female candidates have benefited from calls for the organisation to break that historical pattern.
Otunnu’s credentials
Otunnu, 75, is not an outsider to the UN system. He served as Uganda’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and later became the UN Under-Secretary-General and Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict. His long diplomatic career has given him extensive experience in multilateral diplomacy and international institutions.
Ironically, Otunnu also has a unique connection to the very straw-poll system that is now threatening his own candidacy.
As Uganda’s UN envoy and president of the Security Council in 1981, Otunnu helped introduce the straw-poll mechanism during a deadlocked contest for Secretary-General. The system was designed to establish which candidates could command support and which faced opposition from permanent members. It helped clear the way for Javier Pérez de Cuéllar to become Secretary-General.
Decades later, the diplomat who helped shape the system finds his own campaign being tested by it.
Uganda faces a diplomatic fight
The latest ballot puts considerable pressure on Uganda’s diplomatic campaign. Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, who is coordinating Otunnu’s campaign, has previously argued that the former UN official possesses the experience and qualifications necessary to lead the world body.
But qualifications alone are unlikely to determine the outcome. The selection remains fundamentally a political and diplomatic process in which the five permanent members wield disproportionate influence.
The Security Council is under pressure to settle the succession before Guterres leaves office on December 31. The latest ballot was the sixth straw poll, and diplomats expect the process to accelerate as the end of the year approaches.
There is also growing speculation that additional candidates could enter the race if the existing contenders fail to overcome opposition from the permanent members. US envoy Mike Waltz said countries retain the sovereign right to nominate additional candidates and expressed confidence that the selection would be completed before the end of the year. PassBlue
For Uganda, however, the immediate challenge is more fundamental: keeping Otunnu in contention.
The four “encourage” votes show that he still has some support within the Council. But with 10 members discouraging his candidacy and three of the five veto powers reportedly opposed, the latest straw poll has transformed what was once an ambitious Ugandan diplomatic campaign into a race against time.
Otunnu now needs not merely to increase his overall support, but to persuade at least some of the powerful permanent members to withdraw their opposition.
Without that breakthrough, Uganda’s bid for the UN’s top diplomatic job risks being stopped not by a lack of credentials, but by the veto power built into the institution Otunnu once helped shape.
Author Profile
- Mr. Stephen Kasozi Muwambi is a seasoned crime investigative writer, majoring in judicial-based stories. His two decades’ experience as a senior investigative journalist has made him one of the best to reckon on in Uganda. He can also be reached via [email protected]
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