For nearly four decades, President Museveni has built and maintained a political and military establishment in which loyalty to the Commander-in-Chief has been one of the most important currencies of survival.
His authority has rested not only on the institutions of the State but also on a carefully cultivated network of trusted individuals who have defended his political interests, protected his government and helped sustain the National Resistance Movement (NRM).
However, an unsettling question is increasingly emerging within the ruling establishment: Is President Museveni still firmly in charge of the political and security machinery he has controlled for nearly 40 years, or is an emerging power centre beginning to undermine some of his most trusted lieutenants?
The question is being prompted by a series of confrontations, public attacks, security-related developments and administrative decisions involving individuals who have historically been regarded as some of Museveni’s most dependable political and military allies.
From retired Lieutenant General Peter Elwelu to former Chief of Military Intelligence (CMI) Director General Major General Abel Kandiho, Office of the National Chairman (ONC) boss Hajjat Hadijah Namyalo, presidential daughter’s husband Odrek Rwabwogo, former government spokesman Ofwono Opondo and Minister for the Presidency Milly Babalanda, a growing number of figures associated with Museveni’s inner circle have found themselves under scrutiny or in confrontation with individuals aligned with the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU).
The developments have particularly attracted attention because PLU is chaired by Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s son and increasingly influential figure in Uganda’s succession debate.
While the individuals involved have different political, institutional and personal circumstances, the emerging pattern raises questions about whether the president’s traditional network of loyalists is being weakened as a new political establishment consolidates influence around Muhoozi.
Is this simply an internal disagreement within the NRM family, or is Uganda witnessing a gradual transfer of political influence from the president’s traditional establishment to a new generation of power brokers?
Elwelu: The General Who Once Saved The Government?
The arrest of retired Lt Gen Peter Elwelu over alleged involvement in subversive activities in Teso has brought the question of presidential authority into particularly sharp focus.
Gen Elwelu is not an ordinary retired military officer. He served as Deputy Chief of Defence Forces and commanded several sensitive military operations during his career. He was also regarded by many within the military establishment as a dependable officer who had demonstrated loyalty to President Museveni.
His latest troubles have therefore surprised some of the president’s traditional supporters, particularly those who remember his role during the 2022 security alert that reportedly resulted in the army being placed on its highest state of readiness.
According to accounts contained in intelligence reports and sources familiar with the incident, Gen Elwelu, who was then Deputy CDF, alerted Museveni about intelligence suggesting suspicious troop movements while the president was away on a state visit in Rwanda and then CDF Gen Wilson Mbadi was on official duty in Kenya.
Gen Elwelu subsequently communicated an order placing the army on Standby Class One, using the Kiswahili code word “Imara”.
The directive reportedly restricted troop and equipment movements pending further instructions. The incident is significant because it demonstrates the level of confidence that Museveni had reportedly placed in Gen Elwelu at the time.
Yet, following Muhoozi’s assumption of the CDF position, relations between the two generals reportedly deteriorated. Gen Elwelu was subsequently retired, and their differences later became public. The latest allegations against the retired general are considerably more serious.
The military has accused him of involvement in activities intended to destabilise Teso. Military intelligence reportedly recovered 15 firearms, military fatigues and two pickup trucks in an operation associated with the investigation. More than 20 former soldiers and associates were also reportedly detained.
Gen Elwelu has not been convicted of any offence, and the allegations must be established through a transparent judicial process.
Nevertheless, his arrest has created unease among some NRM and Teso political leaders, who are questioning how a former senior military commander who served Museveni for decades ended up at the centre of such a serious security investigation.
The intervention of eastern Uganda leaders, including Calvin Echodu, who said they had informed Museveni about their concerns and were seeking clarification from responsible institutions, illustrates the political sensitivity of the matter.
The question being whispered in some political circles is whether Museveni is personally comfortable with the treatment of an officer who once occupied such a sensitive position in his military establishment.
The Blue Letter That Has Become A Political Test
Perhaps even more revealing is the controversy surrounding a presidential letter dated July 10, 2024, appointing Gen Elwelu to monitor government activities in the Teso and Karamoja regions.
The letter, bearing the State House letterhead and President Museveni’s signature, addressed Elwelu as Lieutenant General and Member of Parliament representing the Uganda People’s Defence Forces.
Under the subject, “Monitoring of Government Activities in Teso and Karamoja Regions”, Museveni wrote: “In addition to your current assignment as a Member of Parliament, I have appointed you to monitor government activities in Teso and Karamoja Regions.”
The president further directed the State House Comptroller to facilitate Gen Elwelu to execute the assignment.
The document is significant because it provides written evidence that Museveni personally entrusted Gen Elwelu with an additional responsibility beyond his parliamentary duties.
However, Kasambya County MP Daudi Kabanda, a prominent PLU figure, publicly questioned the directive.
Reacting to the letter, Kabanda asked whether it amounted to corruption, arguing that Gen Elwelu already received a parliamentary salary and was being facilitated to perform an oversight responsibility for which Parliament remunerated him.
He subsequently described the arrangement as “STATE CAPTURE”. Kabanda’s intervention has attracted attention because he was not merely questioning an administrative decision by a government official. He was publicly challenging a written presidential directive.
In Uganda’s political history, openly questioning a presidential decision has rarely been a comfortable undertaking, particularly for individuals within the ruling establishment.
This raises another question: Has the political environment changed so significantly that individuals aligned with the president’s succession project can publicly challenge his decisions without fear of consequences?
The controversy is particularly intriguing because the letter was not an informal instruction or a verbal assurance. It was a written presidential directive, complete with instructions to the State House Comptroller.
Whether the arrangement was administratively appropriate is a separate matter that can be examined on its merits. But the political significance of a PLU leader publicly questioning the president’s written decision cannot easily be dismissed.
Namyalo: The President’s Woman Under Pressure?
Another figure whose troubles have generated discussion is Hajjat Hadijah Namyalo, the Head of the Office of the National Chairman.
Namyalo occupies an important position in Museveni’s political machinery. Her office at Kyambogo is central to the president’s grassroots mobilisation activities and his direct engagement with NRM supporters.
She has also cultivated a political following through mobilisation programmes and activities targeting ordinary supporters.
However, her reported differences with sections of the PLU establishment over the succession debate have placed her in an uncomfortable position.
One of the developments that raised eyebrows was the reported withdrawal of her security detail following disagreements over political succession and the endorsement of Muhoozi’s 2031 ambitions.
If confirmed as a politically motivated decision, the withdrawal would represent a significant development because Namyalo is not an ordinary political activist. She heads an office associated directly with the President of Uganda.
Why would an official occupying such a sensitive position find herself in confrontation with individuals aligned with the CDF?
And more importantly, what does it say about the president’s authority if people associated with his own political office feel exposed to pressure from another political establishment?
The circumstances surrounding her security arrangements deserve clarification from the relevant authorities.
Odrek Rwabwogo: Even The First Family Is Not Immune
Perhaps one of the most politically sensitive developments concerns Odrek Rwabwogo, President Museveni’s son-in-law and husband of his daughter, Patience Museveni. Rwabwogo has historically occupied an influential position in the president’s economic and strategic circles.
Through his involvement in presidential initiatives and the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID), he has been associated with efforts to promote Uganda’s exports, investment and economic transformation.
However, his relationship with sections of the PLU establishment has reportedly deteriorated.
His organisation, PACEID, has faced changes, while individuals associated with its operations have come under investigation.
One such individual, Mathew Bagonza, has reportedly been arrested and prosecuted over alleged financial misconduct.
Rwabwogo has also been a subject of criticism from individuals associated with the CDF’s political establishment, including Kabanda.
His alleged differences over succession politics have added another dimension to the unfolding contest. The significance of this development cannot be underestimated. Rwabwogo is not simply another presidential appointee. He is married into the first family.
If someone occupying such a position can find himself politically exposed amid disagreements with the PLU establishment, what protection is available to other members of Museveni’s traditional inner circle?
It is, however, important to distinguish between political criticism, institutional investigations and an organised campaign to remove individuals from influence. The evidence for each must be independently established.
Kandiho And The Security Establishment
Major General (Rtd) Abel Kandiho is another senior military and security figure whose relationship with the emerging political establishment deserves examination.
As former Director General of the Internal Security Organisation, Kandiho occupied one of the country’s most sensitive intelligence positions.
He was regarded as a dependable security operative during his tenure and was associated with the government’s intelligence and counterterrorism operations.
His subsequent movement within the security establishment and the controversies surrounding his position have contributed to perceptions that some of Museveni’s traditional security loyalists are losing their influence.
For individuals who built their careers serving the president, the growing prominence of a different network of political and security actors inevitably creates uncertainty.
The central question is whether these developments are isolated personnel changes or part of a broader restructuring of the president’s traditional security and political networks.
Ofwono Opondo: When The President’s Defender Becomes A Target
The confrontation involving Ofwono Opondo is another indication of the growing tensions within the ruling establishment. For years, Opondo has served as one of Museveni’s most vocal public defenders.
Whether appearing on television, addressing journalists or responding to government critics, he has consistently defended the president and the NRM administration.
However, his criticism of the political succession debate has brought him into confrontation with PLU activists.
The disagreement has escalated into a public confrontation involving Kasambya MP Daudi Kabanda, who revived a controversial newspaper report from 2004 concerning Opondo.
The incident has raised questions about the space available for independent political commentary within the ruling establishment.
Why should a veteran government spokesperson find himself under pressure for expressing reservations about a political project associated with the president’s son?
The issue is not necessarily whether Opondo agrees with Muhoozi’s ambitions. It is whether individuals who have served Museveni for decades can still express divergent opinions without becoming targets of political attacks.
If the president’s traditional defenders cannot freely express their views, it raises questions about the changing balance of influence within the ruling party.
Babalanda And The Politics Of Public Humiliation
Minister for the Presidency Milly Babalanda has also reportedly faced criticism from individuals associated with PLU. One incident involved Frank Mwesigye, an aide associated with the CDF, who reportedly subjected the minister to body-shaming remarks.
Such exchanges may appear trivial when viewed in isolation, but their political implications are worth examining.
Babalanda is the Minister for the Presidency, a position that places her within the president’s immediate political and administrative environment.
Public attacks against a serving minister by individuals associated with another powerful political establishment raise questions about discipline, institutional respect and the authority of the presidency.
Is the president comfortable with his ministers being publicly humiliated by individuals who operate within the political orbit of his son?
Or has the traditional distinction between presidential authority and the emerging succession establishment become increasingly blurred?
The Otafiire dimension
Retired Major General Kahinda Otafiire has also featured in discussions about the changing political environment.
Otafiire is one of the historical figures of the National Resistance Movement and a long-serving political and military operative whose relationship with Museveni dates back to the liberation struggle.
Their inclusion in the wider debate reflects concerns among some sections of the old establishment that the succession question is increasingly becoming a test of political loyalty.
However, the precise circumstances of their respective disagreements with PLU actors should be established independently rather than treated as proof of a coordinated purge.
The Muhoozi Factor: A New Power Centre?
At the centre of these developments is Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba. As CDF, Senior Presidential Advisor for Special Operations and chairman of PLU, Muhoozi occupies an unusual position in Uganda’s political and security architecture.
He is both the head of the military establishment and the leader of a political organisation whose supporters openly discuss his possible presidential ambitions in 2031.
This combination has generated debate about the relationship between military command, political mobilisation and presidential succession.
PLU activists have increasingly asserted their influence in political discussions, publicly challenging individuals perceived to be opposed to Muhoozi’s ambitions.
Kabanda’s interventions, the public attacks on Opondo and the disagreements involving other government figures illustrate the intensity of this political contest.
The reported intention by PLU to approve or vet new Resident District Commissioners would further expand the debate about the organisation’s influence over government appointments.
The fundamental question is whether PLU is operating as a political mobilisation organisation or gradually emerging as a parallel centre of political influence within the ruling establishment.
There is, of course, an important distinction between the CDF exercising his constitutional and military responsibilities and PLU supporters advancing a political agenda.
But when the two appear to overlap in public perception, the consequences for institutional independence and public confidence can be considerable.
Is The President Still In Control?
The most sensitive question arising from these developments concerns Museveni himself. The president remains Uganda’s Head of State, Commander-in-Chief and chairman of the ruling NRM.
There is no established evidence that he has lost constitutional authority or that his government has ceased to function under his direction. However, constitutional authority and the practical management of political influence are not always the same thing.
A president can remain firmly in office while different factions within his establishment compete for influence, appointments, access and control of the succession conversation.
The concerns being raised by some NRM insiders are therefore not necessarily that Museveni has been removed from power, but that some of his traditional allies appear increasingly vulnerable to attacks from a political establishment associated with his fiery son.
If the president’s written directives can become subjects of public controversy involving his son’s political allies, if officials heading his own office reportedly face security changes amid succession disagreements, and if veteran defenders such as Opondo are publicly targeted, then the question of where ultimate political authority lies becomes unavoidable.
The situation also creates a potentially dangerous dilemma for Museveni. If he intervenes to protect his traditional loyalists, he risks creating friction with a succession establishment that has increasingly become influential.
If he remains silent, his silence may be interpreted by some of his supporters as an indication that the old political hierarchy is changing. Either way, the president faces a delicate balancing act.
A Succession Battle Or An Internal Purge?
Uganda’s political history is full of internal disagreements that initially appeared insignificant but eventually exposed deeper divisions within the ruling establishment.
The current developments should therefore not be dismissed as ordinary disagreements among political supporters.
They involve serving military commanders, retired generals, presidential advisers, ministers, political mobilisers and members of the first family.
The arrest of Gen Elwelu has added a security dimension to what was already an increasingly heated political debate.
His case deserves a transparent investigation, with the retired general accorded the presumption of innocence and a fair hearing.
Similarly, allegations of political interference, intimidation and the weakening of presidential loyalists must be examined against verifiable evidence rather than speculation.
But one thing is increasingly evident: the succession question has moved beyond private conversations and is now shaping public relationships within the ruling establishment.
The central concern is no longer simply whether Muhoozi will succeed his father in 2031.
It is whether the process of preparing for that succession is changing the balance of power before Museveni has left office.
For decades, the president’s political survival depended on his ability to manage competing interests and maintain loyalty among the military, political class and intelligence establishment.
Today, some of those traditional allies appear to be facing an increasingly uncomfortable political environment.
And that brings us back to the most important question of all: Is President Museveni still the undisputed centre of power in his own establishment, or is a new political order emerging around Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba while the old guard is being pushed to the margins?
For now, the answer remains unclear. But the growing list of confrontations involving the president’s traditional blue-eyed boys suggests that Uganda’s succession politics may be entering a much more consequential phase than many within the NRM establishment are prepared to acknowledge.
Author Profile
- Charles Gazza Kodili is a seasoned journalist with over 20 years of experience in the media industry. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Mass Communication. He’s currently the Chief Editor at the Investigator.
Charles can also be reached via; Tel: +256 774 108978
Email: [email protected]
Latest entries
FeaturedNovember 3, 2026THE PURGE OF MUSEVENI’S BLUE-EYED BOYS! IS THE PRESIDENT UNDER SIEGE? From Gen Peter Elwelu’s Arrest To The Troubles Of Namyalo, Opondo, Kandiho And Odrek Rwabwogo, Museveni’s Traditional Loyalists Are Increasingly Finding Themselves On The Firing Line Of Muhoozi’s Political Establishment
FeaturedNovember 2, 2026WHY VISION AXED OFWONO OPONDO: The Veteran Journo’s Criticism of Muhoozi’s 2031 Project, Defence of Otafiire and Questioning M7’s Succession Plan Triggered Tensions with the Government Newspaper’s Editorial
FeaturedNovember 2, 2026WHY THE UPDF IS ENDING ITS 20-YEAR WAR IN SOMALIA: The Inside Story of the 20-Year Operation, the Generals who Commanded Missions and the Sacrifices that Made Uganda a Regional Military Powerhouse
FeaturedOctober 31, 2026THE MUHOOZI TAKEOVER: WHY MK WANTS TO VET PRES MUSEVENI APPOINTEES! The CDF Declares, All New RDCs Must Pass His Scrutiny as PLU Seeks a Bigger Role in Determining Who Represents The President
